Ser fram emot juli från slutet av juni, även om silikonindustrin står inför kortvarigt tryck, dyker upp flera positiva signaler gradvis, och branschens vändning är värt att se fram emot .
From the price perspective, although the price of the organic silicon intermediate DMC dropped to 10,800 yuan per ton in June under pressure, the industry inventory has decreased month-on-month for three consecutive months. Currently, the inventory percentile has dropped to 43%, indicating that the supply and demand relationship is gradually improving. As the traditional peak demand season of the third quarter approaches, the basic demand for building sealants, electronic and electrical insulation materials, etc., is expected to stabilize. Coupled with the incremental demand for high-performance silicone materials in emerging fields such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, the support from the demand side will gradually increase.
On the supply side, the capacity expansion cycle of the industry has come to an end. After 2024, the addition of new production capacity will significantly slow down. By 2025, only a few projects such as Inner Mongolia Xingfa remain to be implemented, and the supply pressure will be alleviated. Leading enterprises have continuously improved their production efficiency through full industrial chain layout and Intelligent omvandling, med enhetskostnader 15% till 20% lägre än branschgenomsnittet . Detta ger utrymme för pris rebound .
The policy and market environment have also brought about positive changes. The national "dual carbon" goals have driven the green transformation of the industry, and the demand for environmentally friendly silicone products has grown rapidly. Meanwhile, the recovery of infrastructure in Southeast Asia and the rise of electronic manufacturing in India have provided new space for China's silicone exports. Leading enterprises have continued Att utöka sin utländska marknadsandel genom teknikexport och lokal produktion .
Looking forward to July, as favorable policies for the real estate sector are gradually implemented, the demand in the construction field is expected to recover. The continuous growth in the production of new energy vehicles has driven the demand for high-end silicone materials such as battery thermal management and electronic component protection. Emerging application fields such as photovoltaic module encapsulation adhesives and 5G base station heat dissipation materials kommer också att upprätthålla en hög tillväxttakt . mot bakgrund av en kontinuerlig optimering av utbudet och efterfrågemönstret och den gradvisa uppkomsten av kostnadsstöd förväntas silikonindustrin bevittna en dubbel förbättring av både pris och efterfrågan i juli, och en återhämtning i branschens välstånd förväntas .}
